Fully agent based modellings of epidemic spread using AnyLogic - Multimethod Simulation Software Tool AnyLogic
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Štefan Emrich, Sergej Suslov, Florian Judex. EUROSIM 2007, September 9-13 2007, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
“The problem that we are going to conquer subsequently is a slight modification of the ARGESIM Comparison 17. This comparison does ask for the simulation of a SIR-type epidemic by means of lattice gas cellular automata (LGCA). At the end of this paper we will compare the outcome of such an approach with our ABS-result.
The task is to model a SIR-type epidemic, an epidemic simplified in several ways. For example we assume a constant population over the whole simulation, thus no births or deaths may occur. Further there is no incubation period or delay time between infection and infectivity of an agent.
CA are defined via their neighborhood, this means that we need an equivalent to the CA-neighborhood for our MAS. We are going to solve this by defining a field of view for our agents. This field of view is set via two parameters: vision-range or -distance and angle of vision (see Fig.1).
The transmission of infection is being modeled as follows: if an agent crosses another agent’s field of view they establish contact (for this every agent holds a Boolean control variable). In case that any of the agents is infected the infection is triggered probabilistically by a trigger-event.
Recovery of the agents is also reached stochastically, although with a given minimum for the duration of the disease. A recovered agent cannot become infected again, thus it is immune to the disease. This is leading to two possible scenarios:
• The disease infects all agents in our simulation resulting in a full immunization of our Population. The infection dies out because of lack of vectors
• The infection does not find any new vectors (e.g. the density of agents is too low) and thus cannot reach all individuals of our population before dying off. This leaves a partially immunized and partially susceptible population. ..”
State chart “health” of agent
